Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks

There's no other matchup that the Milwaukee Bucks wanted more than this one. To be able to seek revenge against a team who eliminated them last year in the playoffs. The Miami Heat closed the season decently but today they're going to have to play out of this world to compete against this Milwaukee Bucks team. The Milwaukee Bucks are a top three team in first quarter scoring margin, so that's where I'm going to take them, hoping that they come out on fire at home enough to cover this first quarter line. 

The play: Bucks -2 1Q

Golden State Warriors vs Los Angeles Lakers

The biggest narrative I've seen today is that this LAL/GSW game is going to be all time great. Steph vs LeBron. This gives me cause for concern, however. One thing is for sure, the Lakers aren't really a play-in team. Maybe the Warriors aren't either if Steph didn't miss 9 games, but we know the Lakers with LeBron aren't for sure. We can't even use numbers to quantify how good the Lakers are because THIS team doesn't have much run together but they did get a few games under their belt to develop some sort of rhythm. And even an out of rhythm Lakers team managed to win by more than 5.5 on the road in both games they've played. I guess what I'm saying is, the line is a little short here. Not by much, but it is.

This is not 'do or die' for either team but not many people expect the Warriors to win so that means all of the pressure is on LA. A loss here doesn't effect steph's legacy like it will LeBron. And LeBron did try to butter Steph up with compliments but Steph assured us and LeBron that it would not affect how he played on the floor by stating he's "not giving LeBron a pass". To me, I get it, but that just fires up the Lakers even more because I start to get the sense, that the Lakers get the sense, that these Warriors feel like they can actually win this game. And the Warriors should feel that way winning 8 out of the 10 games. The Lakers on the other hand, should feel like it's time to bring the Warriors back down to earth. I like the Warriors, I think they are right there with any team with a similar or slightly better record as them but we must understand there are levels to this, and the Lakers are definitely a step above these Warriors. I'm not saying the Warrior can't beat these Lakers but I do believe it would take a specific situation where the Warriors have the rest advantage, or where they're coming off of a loss instead of a huge win to determine seeding. All things equal, the Lakers have a better defense, a better offense, and more guys who can get their own bucket if all else fails. 

The Warriors enter into this game in rhythm, so it's possible they open up the game fast, but soon that #1 defense of the Lakers will figure out how to defend whatever the Warriors are throwing at them. I don't expect Steph to have the same kind of game he had Sunday against Memphis. 

Play: Lakers -5.5

Washington Wizards vs Boston Celtics

It's not yet an official play, but I lean Celtics. Here's why:

1. They're home where they're 21-15 with a +3point differential, rested, and healthy outside of brown.

2. Yes, Brown is out, but Fournier has stepped up in place of him. He's not as good of a scorer, but he's a decent facilitator. Boston needs that badly. In this case, I look at him as an addition to the team since he wasn't part of the team earlier on the year.

3. They have more playoff experience.

4. Entire world seems to be on wizards.

5. Line opened up at 1.5, and moved to 2 even though many people are on Wizards.

I wouldn't call this a trap because the line is fair based on recent performance, but Boston rested several guys in those some of those losses, like the OKC and Cleveland game. I'm waiting to see who's playing today, if Williams is a go for the Celtics, I'll be on them. 

Milwaukee Bucks vs Chicago Bulls

Tonight the Bucks visit Chicago for the final game of the regular season. Bucks will only play hard for the 2 seed here, but this Nets/Cleveland game should be decided for the most part by the time that game starts. So I can see one or two things happening. Nets blow Cleveland out and the Bucks rest everybody, or Nets/Cleveland is close by the start of the Bucks game, so the Bucks will start everybody and then pull them when they realize there's no reason to play anymore. In no scenario do I see Brooklyn losing though, so I'm counting on that. 

With that said, It's last game of the year for chicago, I believe they'll come out energized. Bucks just blew Miami out, can't see them putting up that kind of effort in back to back days for a meaningless game. The Bulls are resting everybody here, but I still like them here. There's no tomorrow for them, so give your all and enjoy your vacation with a win under your belt.

The play: Bulls +6 

Sacramento Kings vs Memphis Grizzlies

The Memphis Grizzlies are sitting in the 9th spot with no chance of being any worse than 10th. Sure after that dominant win against the Dallas Mavs in a revenge spot, I'm sure they thought they'd overtake the Warriors for the 8th seed with the Warriors having the Suns later on that night. But then the Warriors beat PHX. Everything went right for the Grizzlies in that game. They shot 57% from the field and 48%(16-33) from 3. It's hard to string together back to back performaces like that, especially when you're looking at an inferior opponent like the Kings.

The Kings are 11th in the west, 2 games back of the Spurs with 3 games left in season. It's a long shot, but there's still a possibility they can make the play-in. With a loss today(or a Spurs win), they'd officially be eliminated. TBH, I don't think the organization cares to win games right now being that they are keeping Fox, Bagley, and Barnes out, but the players that are playing do. I think it helps that the players that are on the floor, are auditioning for minutes and contracts next year, and the defense has gotten better since Fox went down. The Grizzlies are already an under team at home and are coming off of an offensive performance where they scored 133 in regulation. Needless to say, I think they'll be in a dog fight today.

The Plays: 

Kings +4.5 1h (half unit)

Grizzlies Team total u118.5 (half unit)

San Antonio Spurs vs Utah Jazz

This will be my third game in a row betting on a game featuring the San Antonio Spurs. This team is hot ATS right now, to the point where they even covered a +5 line against the Sixers with no DeMar, no Murray, and No Poetl, and that was a home game where they really struggle to cover games. I feel like the books are a little exposed here. With the Spurs being on a back to back, a spot they are 7-5 in, they have to add another 1.5-2 points to this line. Along with that, even though this was a back to back, like I said the Spurs rested a few key members who should be rested to give this a go. Also, at the current line, it's unclear if DeMar will go. Some of the other players have been cleared, but this line might drop to 6.5 or 6 if DeMar is cleared.

 The Jazz had a really HOT period this season, but since then, they've regressed. Since April 1st, they are just a mere 10-7 straight up and just 6-11 ATS. I honestly think some of the injuries have taken their toll on the Jazz. They really lack the playmakers to carry them when shots aren't falling. With no Donovan, and no Conley, it's really up to Clarkson to carry this team offensively, but is he better than DeMar? No. Is he even better than Murray? That's up for debate. 

The Spurs have A LOT more to play for here with the Pelicans developing Rhythm and the Warriors overtaking them in the standings. By the way, the Warriors and Pelicans play today so no matter who wins, it puts pressure on the Spurs. Also, this is a revenge game for SA who lost to Utah in January by 21. On the road, the Spurs are 20-8-1 ATS and 18-12 SU. In the 2nd back to backs following losses, the Spurs are 4-1 straight up and 4-1 ATS. They are 7-1-1 in their last 9 games. Just too much point towards the Spurs not only covering, but possibly winning this game. I'll take my chances here even with the possibility of DeMar being officially ruled out. 

The Play: Spurs +7.5

Philadelphia 76ers vs San Antonio Spurs

The San Antonio Spurs rolled into Boston ON FIRE. At one point I looked late in the the 2nd qtr, they were shooting 73% from the field with a 33 point lead! Now of course, they cooled off in the second half and ended up shooting 53%, as you expect some correction there. What you don't expect is for them to lose the entire lead and the game. Very demoralizing loss. With all of that said, I had the Spurs in that game at +4.5 and won. I took that bet because of how great of a road team the Spurs are. Today they are at home and are nowhere near as good there as on the road. They face a Philly team that is top 3 in first qtr margin behind Denver & Milwaukee. The Spurs are God-awful at home in the 1Q as they are 9-23 ATS in this situation. Being that they absolutely torched Boston in the 1Q of their last game, combined with the fact that I'm not so sure they have yet to process such a demoralizing let down, I can see Philly hitting them in the mouth early here. Philly has some ground to make up after losing 4 games in a row due to several key injuries. Since getting their guys back, they are 3-0 and have beaten everybody they've played by 20+ with a scoring margin of +32.3. needless to say, I think it's a great spot for the 76ers who lost their last 1Q outright to Atlanta(26-23), and a bad spot for the Spurs who won their last first qtr by 22. I think the odds are in our favor here. 

The Play: 76ers 1Q -2