Philadelphia 76ers vs Milwaukee Bucks

I watched the last game between these two and I will tell you this, I don't think I've ever seen a team open up a game as efficiently as the Bucks did. I know at one point, they were 13-14 from the field, and rightfully so, they are the 3rd best first qtr team in the league outscoring teams by an average of 2.7 points per contest. Of course, over the course of the game they cooled off but despite that, the game was never really close. It wasn't a fair fight because not only were the Sixers missing their second best player, but they were on a back to back off of a tightly contested game with the Suns. With that said, guess who's number two in first quarter scoring margin, the 76ers.

I believe they will come out with better intensity today after being annihilated in the previous game like a well-coached team should. The Sixers just lost the 1 seed to the Nets and listening to Embiid talk a week ago, it's important for them to maintain that spot. Speaking of Embiid, he's questionable today. I still like it if he sits. Interesting enough, the line is already shaded to him possibly missing today's game. They were 6.5 dogs on a back to back with him but now 7.5 dogs with a day of rest? 

The Bucks have been an up and down team lately. They are 4-6 SU & ATS over their last 10 games. It's not unfathomable to think we see a 1Q correction after being so efficient in the first qtr of their last game, especially against a team that is also known for good starts. Embiid or no Embiid, what goes up, must come down.

The Play: Sixers 1Q +2.5

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Charlotte Hornets

As bad as the Charlotte Hornets have been lately, I have to think they'll put forth some effort tonight. For one, the Cavs are 4-14 in their last 18 games and are coming off of a 16 point win. They shot 51% from the field and 44% from 3 scoring 121 points for the game. A lot went right in that game for the Cavs.

Compare that to their season averages of 45% from the field and 39% from 3 averaging 104 points per contest. Secondly, this is a revenge spot for the Hornets after losing to this Cavs team twice already this season, the last loss being just a week ago. Lastly, yes, the Cavaliers are still mathematically in the race for the play in, but a lot has to go right for that to happen, including a multitude of things that aren't in their control. So as an organization you have to decide which way you want your franchise to go which is still compete, or get a slightly better chance at a better draft pick. The players will always play the way they play, but I'm not sure there will be any sense of urgency tonight from the Cavs from anybody outside of the players. I'll take my chances with this struggling Hornets team that has much more to pay for which "should" be motivated here.

The Play: Hornets -1 -120

Brooklyn Nets vs Toronto Raptors

So, here we have a similar line discrepancy to the Nets vs Pelicans line yesterday.

Except, there are a few differences. For starters, the Nets are on a back to back and had to travel from New Orleans to Tampa. Secondly, the Raptors have had 2 days off. Thirdly, the Nets are coming off of a win in this scenario as opposed to a loss, and with no Harden, and no KD, I would consider the Nets a .500 team who will struggle to string together strong performances on the road. Another difference is that although the Raptors have been God-awful this season when compared to previous ones, they are one of those teams that have dealt with injuries but have the experience to play better than other teams with a similar record when healthy. Looking at injury reports,

I believe today, they will finally have a full squad ready to go, especially after being fined 25k by the league for resting players and having two days off. If anyone is to rest in this game, it'll probably be from the BKN side(Griffin). Lastly, the Raptors have quietly won 3 games in a row, and are still in contention for the play in spot. The Pacers just lost Turner indefinitely, the Wizards face the Warriors today in a Warriors revenge spot, so today's game provides an excellent opportunity for these Raptors to jump a spot or two in the next few days. All in all, this just simply isn't a fair fight for the Brooklyn Nets with so much working against them and this line is short a 3-4 points in my opinion. 

The Play: Toronto Raptors -3.5

Brooklyn Nets at New Orleans Pelicans

So, this is the kind of stuff you have to pay attention to in the #NBA 

If you bet sports, but knew nothing about the NBA, this wouldn't make any sense and you'd could easily see where the value is. But being invested in the NBA, you overthink it. You know Durant & Harden are both inactive so maybe the line is representative of that. Okay, fair, but in the grand scheme, one team has a culture of winning, while the other, a culture of losing. So when I see discrepancies like this, I asked myself which team given that both teams are coming off of a loss, has the higher probability of rebounding by playing winning basketball? Win or lose, the answer is as clear as a sunny day.

The Play: Brooklyn Nets +3

2/4/2021 Wagner at St. Francis(NY)

Today, in one of the earlier college basketball matchups, we have Wagner visiting St. Francis. This 'should' be easy but as we know, nothing is easy in sports betting. 

Wagner is 2-5 SU and is coming off of a win. Following wins this season, Wagner is 0-3 straight up and ATS this year on the road losing by an average of 17 points per contest.

St Francis is sitting at 4-4 on the season, but where they shine the most is after a loss, where they are 3-0 ATS and 2-1 SU. They are 3-1 SU & ATS as a favorite as well. 

In terms of recent history, these two teams have faced off 6 times in the past 3 season and St. Francis has taken 4 of those 6, and 3 of the last 4.

 

As of right now, the public is favoring Wagner to not only cover, but win straight up. I personally feel like this is a dead spot for Wagner.

The play: St Francis -3 -120 1u

Good Luck!

1-10-20 NCAAB Minnesota at Iowa

Today, Iowa gets another crack at the Minnesota Golden Gophers after losing to them on the road 102-95. Minnesota is 10-3 and all 3 of those losses have come on the road. In fact, they haven't won a road game this year. In those road games, they are losing by an average of 21 points per-contest. They've faced 4 top 10 ranked teams, and are 1-3 in those games losing by an average of 14 points per game. That one win was against, you guessed it, the Iowa Hawkeyes. Iowa is 10-2 and is absolutely destroying teams at home. In this last 6 game home stand, they have beaten teams by an average of 32 points per game. Iowa is one of the strongest first-half home teams in all of college basketball, winning by an average of 16 points per-game in the first-half, while Minnesota is being outscored by 8 on the road. 

I think this is an absolute smash-spot for Iowa. And not only because of those numbers, but add to that the revenge angle. I can't see Minnesota competing here, especially since they are coming into this one on a 6-game win streak.

The play: Iowa -10 

11/30/20 MNF - Seahawks at Eagles

 

Tonight, the Seattle Seahawks are set to face off against the Eagles in philly. The line is -6.5 and the total is currently set at 49. The Eagles are only averaging a meager 22 points a game which has a slight bump at home at 23 points per game. 

Here's where things get tricky, however. The Seahawks have one of the worst defenses in the league, giving up 28 points a game, and 30 points per game on the road. In road games following wins, they're allowing 31 points a game. The seahawks have dropped the last 3 road games straight up, also failing to cover all 3. 

Today, as 6.5 point favorites, the Seahawks have attracted around 65% of public tickets. 

With that said, I'm really liking the Eagles to put up a fight in this one after scoring only 17 in their last matchup in Cleveland, which has been a resthaven for unders in the last month. In addition to that, the Seahawks were able to hold the Cardinals to a moderate 21 in their last matchup. My motto is, what goes up, must come down. I'm going to roll with Eagles team total over 21 points here.

Play: Eagles team total o21 -120(or 21.5) Risking 1.2u 

2020 NFL season record: 56-50-3 53% +5.55u