San Antonio Spurs vs Boston Celtics

The Spurs are just above .500 on the season sure, but that's because they are god awful at home(13-19). I'm not sure what it is with some of these teams, but they perform much better on the road, than at home. They are 18-11 straight up on the road, and 20-8-1 ATS. They're coming into this matchup off of a straight up loss which resulted in a push ATS depending on what number you got. 

The Celtics at home like most teams, perform their best there as they come into this matchup with a 20-12 SU home record. They are 16-16 straight up following wins and just 13-18 ATS in that situation. To make matters worse for Boston, the Spurs have completely dominated this matchup as if late. They have beaten Boston 8 out of the last 10 times they've faced off and are 7-3 ATS in those games. When I see that kind of domination, I usually attribute it to a coaching matchup rather than a player matchup. The coaches are the same here. I expect the Spurs with a day of rest following a loss, to come into this game and put up a strong enough fight to cover this line (4.5) against these Celtics who have a point differential of -1.25 in home games following games where they've won and covered.

The Play: Spurs: +4.5

New Orleans Pelicans vs Oklahoma City Thunder

The Pelicans are in a tough, yet mostly predictable spot here. Something I started tracking earlier in the season was how this Thunder team which is mostly void of great talent did after wins where they scored more than 110 points. Here are the results(13 games)

103⬇️(TT 109.5) lost by 21 vs CHI

101⬇️(TT 105) *won* by 12 vs NYK

102⬇️(TT 108.5) lost by 10 vs SAS

101⬇️(TT 105.5) lost by 18 vs DEN

102⬇️(TT 103.5) *won* by 5 vs PHX

112⬆️(TT 104.5) lost by 7 vs LAL

104⬇️(TT 110.5) lost by 11 vs POR

94⬇️(TT 102.5) lost by 14 vs MIA

96⬇️(TT 106.5) lost by 30 vs DEN

102⬇️(TT 110.5) lost by 21 vs CHI

112⬇️(TT 112.5) *won* by 9 vs MIN

97⬇️(TT 102.5) lost by 22 vs NYK

107⬆️(TT 106) lost by 9 vs MEM

103⬇️(103.5) lost by 37 vs PHX

Which comes out to an average of about 102.5 ppg. They've only scored over this total of 111.5 twice and they've only gone over the team total twice(12-2) in this situation. Prior to the game in Boston, they had been on a 14 game losing streak and had only won 1 of their last 18 games. During that span, they've only gone over 110 points 3 times, and that includes wins and losses. I'd like to think that the odds are in our favor here. 

The Play: Thunder TEAM TOTAL u111.5

Chicago Bulls vs New York Knicks

The Chicago Bulls since the Zack Lavine injury have played 7 games in total. These are their first half outcomes in those games

Tie game vs Memphis

Down 2 vs Cleveland

Down 6 vs Boston

Down 17 vs Cleveland

Up 14 vs Charlotte

Down 20 vs Miami

Down 1 vs Miami

-4.6 scoring differential. 

During this span they have won four games. In games following the 3 wins in which we can quantify, their first half outcomes are:

Down 6 vs Boston

Down 15 vs Cleveland

Down 20 vs Miami

-13.7 scoring differential.

That brings us into this game against the Knicks following a win at Miami. The Knicks are one of the better first half teams at home winning first halves there by an average of 2.7 points per game. The Knicks are 40-20-2 ATS in the first half overall and 20-12 ATS at home, making them the best first half team in the NBA. The Bulls are middle of the pack, but most of that was done with Lavine. They aren't the same team without him, obviously.

For the Knicks, there's no shame in losing the the Suns who are the superior team, but games like this really show what you're made of. How are you going to respond to that game. Will you be disciplined enough to get up for a game vs a team you're better than, following a loss vs better team? This is a real character test for the Knicks today and this line is short. Could be a trap but I see value in them here.

The Play: Knicks -2 1h

Pheonix Suns vs Brooklyn Nets

This one might be hard to for most to take. Why? For starters, KD and Tyler Johnson are set to return today. For another, the line looks very enticing for Brooklyn who has the second best offense in the league. But I like the Suns today. They have the second best record in the league for a reason. They have the 5th best defense in the league, and 7th best offense. Compared to Brooklyn who has the 2nd best offense and 25th best defense. The Nets are just 7-5 in the month of april, but to be fair, they've been dealing with injuries. The Suns who average 114 a game only mustered up 86 in their last matchup with Boston. But let's be fair here, they were on the second of a back to back off of a game vs Philly where they had to play hard for 48 minutes, and to make matters worse they were facing a Boston team who were coming in off of two days of rest and coming off of a loss. Today, that's not the case. This will be a more fair fight and it's a revenge spot for the Suns who lost to BKN who were without KD and Kyrie. Speaking of that, I can imagine it's hard for the Nets to develop any kind of Rhythm with their main guys in and out of the lineup so much, and with a chance at the one seed still, I have to believe these Suns will take advantage of that lack of rhythm and give it their all tonight and rebound off of such a poor offensive performance. 

The Play: Suns +1.5

Philadelphia 76ers vs Milwaukee Bucks

I watched the last game between these two and I will tell you this, I don't think I've ever seen a team open up a game as efficiently as the Bucks did. I know at one point, they were 13-14 from the field, and rightfully so, they are the 3rd best first qtr team in the league outscoring teams by an average of 2.7 points per contest. Of course, over the course of the game they cooled off but despite that, the game was never really close. It wasn't a fair fight because not only were the Sixers missing their second best player, but they were on a back to back off of a tightly contested game with the Suns. With that said, guess who's number two in first quarter scoring margin, the 76ers.

I believe they will come out with better intensity today after being annihilated in the previous game like a well-coached team should. The Sixers just lost the 1 seed to the Nets and listening to Embiid talk a week ago, it's important for them to maintain that spot. Speaking of Embiid, he's questionable today. I still like it if he sits. Interesting enough, the line is already shaded to him possibly missing today's game. They were 6.5 dogs on a back to back with him but now 7.5 dogs with a day of rest? 

The Bucks have been an up and down team lately. They are 4-6 SU & ATS over their last 10 games. It's not unfathomable to think we see a 1Q correction after being so efficient in the first qtr of their last game, especially against a team that is also known for good starts. Embiid or no Embiid, what goes up, must come down.

The Play: Sixers 1Q +2.5

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Charlotte Hornets

As bad as the Charlotte Hornets have been lately, I have to think they'll put forth some effort tonight. For one, the Cavs are 4-14 in their last 18 games and are coming off of a 16 point win. They shot 51% from the field and 44% from 3 scoring 121 points for the game. A lot went right in that game for the Cavs.

Compare that to their season averages of 45% from the field and 39% from 3 averaging 104 points per contest. Secondly, this is a revenge spot for the Hornets after losing to this Cavs team twice already this season, the last loss being just a week ago. Lastly, yes, the Cavaliers are still mathematically in the race for the play in, but a lot has to go right for that to happen, including a multitude of things that aren't in their control. So as an organization you have to decide which way you want your franchise to go which is still compete, or get a slightly better chance at a better draft pick. The players will always play the way they play, but I'm not sure there will be any sense of urgency tonight from the Cavs from anybody outside of the players. I'll take my chances with this struggling Hornets team that has much more to pay for which "should" be motivated here.

The Play: Hornets -1 -120

Brooklyn Nets vs Toronto Raptors

So, here we have a similar line discrepancy to the Nets vs Pelicans line yesterday.

Except, there are a few differences. For starters, the Nets are on a back to back and had to travel from New Orleans to Tampa. Secondly, the Raptors have had 2 days off. Thirdly, the Nets are coming off of a win in this scenario as opposed to a loss, and with no Harden, and no KD, I would consider the Nets a .500 team who will struggle to string together strong performances on the road. Another difference is that although the Raptors have been God-awful this season when compared to previous ones, they are one of those teams that have dealt with injuries but have the experience to play better than other teams with a similar record when healthy. Looking at injury reports,

I believe today, they will finally have a full squad ready to go, especially after being fined 25k by the league for resting players and having two days off. If anyone is to rest in this game, it'll probably be from the BKN side(Griffin). Lastly, the Raptors have quietly won 3 games in a row, and are still in contention for the play in spot. The Pacers just lost Turner indefinitely, the Wizards face the Warriors today in a Warriors revenge spot, so today's game provides an excellent opportunity for these Raptors to jump a spot or two in the next few days. All in all, this just simply isn't a fair fight for the Brooklyn Nets with so much working against them and this line is short a 3-4 points in my opinion. 

The Play: Toronto Raptors -3.5

Brooklyn Nets at New Orleans Pelicans

So, this is the kind of stuff you have to pay attention to in the #NBA 

If you bet sports, but knew nothing about the NBA, this wouldn't make any sense and you'd could easily see where the value is. But being invested in the NBA, you overthink it. You know Durant & Harden are both inactive so maybe the line is representative of that. Okay, fair, but in the grand scheme, one team has a culture of winning, while the other, a culture of losing. So when I see discrepancies like this, I asked myself which team given that both teams are coming off of a loss, has the higher probability of rebounding by playing winning basketball? Win or lose, the answer is as clear as a sunny day.

The Play: Brooklyn Nets +3