Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks

There's no other matchup that the Milwaukee Bucks wanted more than this one. To be able to seek revenge against a team who eliminated them last year in the playoffs. The Miami Heat closed the season decently but today they're going to have to play out of this world to compete against this Milwaukee Bucks team. The Milwaukee Bucks are a top three team in first quarter scoring margin, so that's where I'm going to take them, hoping that they come out on fire at home enough to cover this first quarter line. 

The play: Bucks -2 1Q

Golden State Warriors vs Los Angeles Lakers

The biggest narrative I've seen today is that this LAL/GSW game is going to be all time great. Steph vs LeBron. This gives me cause for concern, however. One thing is for sure, the Lakers aren't really a play-in team. Maybe the Warriors aren't either if Steph didn't miss 9 games, but we know the Lakers with LeBron aren't for sure. We can't even use numbers to quantify how good the Lakers are because THIS team doesn't have much run together but they did get a few games under their belt to develop some sort of rhythm. And even an out of rhythm Lakers team managed to win by more than 5.5 on the road in both games they've played. I guess what I'm saying is, the line is a little short here. Not by much, but it is.

This is not 'do or die' for either team but not many people expect the Warriors to win so that means all of the pressure is on LA. A loss here doesn't effect steph's legacy like it will LeBron. And LeBron did try to butter Steph up with compliments but Steph assured us and LeBron that it would not affect how he played on the floor by stating he's "not giving LeBron a pass". To me, I get it, but that just fires up the Lakers even more because I start to get the sense, that the Lakers get the sense, that these Warriors feel like they can actually win this game. And the Warriors should feel that way winning 8 out of the 10 games. The Lakers on the other hand, should feel like it's time to bring the Warriors back down to earth. I like the Warriors, I think they are right there with any team with a similar or slightly better record as them but we must understand there are levels to this, and the Lakers are definitely a step above these Warriors. I'm not saying the Warrior can't beat these Lakers but I do believe it would take a specific situation where the Warriors have the rest advantage, or where they're coming off of a loss instead of a huge win to determine seeding. All things equal, the Lakers have a better defense, a better offense, and more guys who can get their own bucket if all else fails. 

The Warriors enter into this game in rhythm, so it's possible they open up the game fast, but soon that #1 defense of the Lakers will figure out how to defend whatever the Warriors are throwing at them. I don't expect Steph to have the same kind of game he had Sunday against Memphis. 

Play: Lakers -5.5

Washington Wizards vs Boston Celtics

It's not yet an official play, but I lean Celtics. Here's why:

1. They're home where they're 21-15 with a +3point differential, rested, and healthy outside of brown.

2. Yes, Brown is out, but Fournier has stepped up in place of him. He's not as good of a scorer, but he's a decent facilitator. Boston needs that badly. In this case, I look at him as an addition to the team since he wasn't part of the team earlier on the year.

3. They have more playoff experience.

4. Entire world seems to be on wizards.

5. Line opened up at 1.5, and moved to 2 even though many people are on Wizards.

I wouldn't call this a trap because the line is fair based on recent performance, but Boston rested several guys in those some of those losses, like the OKC and Cleveland game. I'm waiting to see who's playing today, if Williams is a go for the Celtics, I'll be on them. 

Milwaukee Bucks vs Chicago Bulls

Tonight the Bucks visit Chicago for the final game of the regular season. Bucks will only play hard for the 2 seed here, but this Nets/Cleveland game should be decided for the most part by the time that game starts. So I can see one or two things happening. Nets blow Cleveland out and the Bucks rest everybody, or Nets/Cleveland is close by the start of the Bucks game, so the Bucks will start everybody and then pull them when they realize there's no reason to play anymore. In no scenario do I see Brooklyn losing though, so I'm counting on that. 

With that said, It's last game of the year for chicago, I believe they'll come out energized. Bucks just blew Miami out, can't see them putting up that kind of effort in back to back days for a meaningless game. The Bulls are resting everybody here, but I still like them here. There's no tomorrow for them, so give your all and enjoy your vacation with a win under your belt.

The play: Bulls +6 

Sacramento Kings vs Memphis Grizzlies

The Memphis Grizzlies are sitting in the 9th spot with no chance of being any worse than 10th. Sure after that dominant win against the Dallas Mavs in a revenge spot, I'm sure they thought they'd overtake the Warriors for the 8th seed with the Warriors having the Suns later on that night. But then the Warriors beat PHX. Everything went right for the Grizzlies in that game. They shot 57% from the field and 48%(16-33) from 3. It's hard to string together back to back performaces like that, especially when you're looking at an inferior opponent like the Kings.

The Kings are 11th in the west, 2 games back of the Spurs with 3 games left in season. It's a long shot, but there's still a possibility they can make the play-in. With a loss today(or a Spurs win), they'd officially be eliminated. TBH, I don't think the organization cares to win games right now being that they are keeping Fox, Bagley, and Barnes out, but the players that are playing do. I think it helps that the players that are on the floor, are auditioning for minutes and contracts next year, and the defense has gotten better since Fox went down. The Grizzlies are already an under team at home and are coming off of an offensive performance where they scored 133 in regulation. Needless to say, I think they'll be in a dog fight today.

The Plays: 

Kings +4.5 1h (half unit)

Grizzlies Team total u118.5 (half unit)

San Antonio Spurs vs Utah Jazz

This will be my third game in a row betting on a game featuring the San Antonio Spurs. This team is hot ATS right now, to the point where they even covered a +5 line against the Sixers with no DeMar, no Murray, and No Poetl, and that was a home game where they really struggle to cover games. I feel like the books are a little exposed here. With the Spurs being on a back to back, a spot they are 7-5 in, they have to add another 1.5-2 points to this line. Along with that, even though this was a back to back, like I said the Spurs rested a few key members who should be rested to give this a go. Also, at the current line, it's unclear if DeMar will go. Some of the other players have been cleared, but this line might drop to 6.5 or 6 if DeMar is cleared.

 The Jazz had a really HOT period this season, but since then, they've regressed. Since April 1st, they are just a mere 10-7 straight up and just 6-11 ATS. I honestly think some of the injuries have taken their toll on the Jazz. They really lack the playmakers to carry them when shots aren't falling. With no Donovan, and no Conley, it's really up to Clarkson to carry this team offensively, but is he better than DeMar? No. Is he even better than Murray? That's up for debate. 

The Spurs have A LOT more to play for here with the Pelicans developing Rhythm and the Warriors overtaking them in the standings. By the way, the Warriors and Pelicans play today so no matter who wins, it puts pressure on the Spurs. Also, this is a revenge game for SA who lost to Utah in January by 21. On the road, the Spurs are 20-8-1 ATS and 18-12 SU. In the 2nd back to backs following losses, the Spurs are 4-1 straight up and 4-1 ATS. They are 7-1-1 in their last 9 games. Just too much point towards the Spurs not only covering, but possibly winning this game. I'll take my chances here even with the possibility of DeMar being officially ruled out. 

The Play: Spurs +7.5

Philadelphia 76ers vs San Antonio Spurs

The San Antonio Spurs rolled into Boston ON FIRE. At one point I looked late in the the 2nd qtr, they were shooting 73% from the field with a 33 point lead! Now of course, they cooled off in the second half and ended up shooting 53%, as you expect some correction there. What you don't expect is for them to lose the entire lead and the game. Very demoralizing loss. With all of that said, I had the Spurs in that game at +4.5 and won. I took that bet because of how great of a road team the Spurs are. Today they are at home and are nowhere near as good there as on the road. They face a Philly team that is top 3 in first qtr margin behind Denver & Milwaukee. The Spurs are God-awful at home in the 1Q as they are 9-23 ATS in this situation. Being that they absolutely torched Boston in the 1Q of their last game, combined with the fact that I'm not so sure they have yet to process such a demoralizing let down, I can see Philly hitting them in the mouth early here. Philly has some ground to make up after losing 4 games in a row due to several key injuries. Since getting their guys back, they are 3-0 and have beaten everybody they've played by 20+ with a scoring margin of +32.3. needless to say, I think it's a great spot for the 76ers who lost their last 1Q outright to Atlanta(26-23), and a bad spot for the Spurs who won their last first qtr by 22. I think the odds are in our favor here. 

The Play: 76ers 1Q -2

San Antonio Spurs vs Boston Celtics

The Spurs are just above .500 on the season sure, but that's because they are god awful at home(13-19). I'm not sure what it is with some of these teams, but they perform much better on the road, than at home. They are 18-11 straight up on the road, and 20-8-1 ATS. They're coming into this matchup off of a straight up loss which resulted in a push ATS depending on what number you got. 

The Celtics at home like most teams, perform their best there as they come into this matchup with a 20-12 SU home record. They are 16-16 straight up following wins and just 13-18 ATS in that situation. To make matters worse for Boston, the Spurs have completely dominated this matchup as if late. They have beaten Boston 8 out of the last 10 times they've faced off and are 7-3 ATS in those games. When I see that kind of domination, I usually attribute it to a coaching matchup rather than a player matchup. The coaches are the same here. I expect the Spurs with a day of rest following a loss, to come into this game and put up a strong enough fight to cover this line (4.5) against these Celtics who have a point differential of -1.25 in home games following games where they've won and covered.

The Play: Spurs: +4.5

New Orleans Pelicans vs Oklahoma City Thunder

The Pelicans are in a tough, yet mostly predictable spot here. Something I started tracking earlier in the season was how this Thunder team which is mostly void of great talent did after wins where they scored more than 110 points. Here are the results(13 games)

103⬇️(TT 109.5) lost by 21 vs CHI

101⬇️(TT 105) *won* by 12 vs NYK

102⬇️(TT 108.5) lost by 10 vs SAS

101⬇️(TT 105.5) lost by 18 vs DEN

102⬇️(TT 103.5) *won* by 5 vs PHX

112⬆️(TT 104.5) lost by 7 vs LAL

104⬇️(TT 110.5) lost by 11 vs POR

94⬇️(TT 102.5) lost by 14 vs MIA

96⬇️(TT 106.5) lost by 30 vs DEN

102⬇️(TT 110.5) lost by 21 vs CHI

112⬇️(TT 112.5) *won* by 9 vs MIN

97⬇️(TT 102.5) lost by 22 vs NYK

107⬆️(TT 106) lost by 9 vs MEM

103⬇️(103.5) lost by 37 vs PHX

Which comes out to an average of about 102.5 ppg. They've only scored over this total of 111.5 twice and they've only gone over the team total twice(12-2) in this situation. Prior to the game in Boston, they had been on a 14 game losing streak and had only won 1 of their last 18 games. During that span, they've only gone over 110 points 3 times, and that includes wins and losses. I'd like to think that the odds are in our favor here. 

The Play: Thunder TEAM TOTAL u111.5

Chicago Bulls vs New York Knicks

The Chicago Bulls since the Zack Lavine injury have played 7 games in total. These are their first half outcomes in those games

Tie game vs Memphis

Down 2 vs Cleveland

Down 6 vs Boston

Down 17 vs Cleveland

Up 14 vs Charlotte

Down 20 vs Miami

Down 1 vs Miami

-4.6 scoring differential. 

During this span they have won four games. In games following the 3 wins in which we can quantify, their first half outcomes are:

Down 6 vs Boston

Down 15 vs Cleveland

Down 20 vs Miami

-13.7 scoring differential.

That brings us into this game against the Knicks following a win at Miami. The Knicks are one of the better first half teams at home winning first halves there by an average of 2.7 points per game. The Knicks are 40-20-2 ATS in the first half overall and 20-12 ATS at home, making them the best first half team in the NBA. The Bulls are middle of the pack, but most of that was done with Lavine. They aren't the same team without him, obviously.

For the Knicks, there's no shame in losing the the Suns who are the superior team, but games like this really show what you're made of. How are you going to respond to that game. Will you be disciplined enough to get up for a game vs a team you're better than, following a loss vs better team? This is a real character test for the Knicks today and this line is short. Could be a trap but I see value in them here.

The Play: Knicks -2 1h

Pheonix Suns vs Brooklyn Nets

This one might be hard to for most to take. Why? For starters, KD and Tyler Johnson are set to return today. For another, the line looks very enticing for Brooklyn who has the second best offense in the league. But I like the Suns today. They have the second best record in the league for a reason. They have the 5th best defense in the league, and 7th best offense. Compared to Brooklyn who has the 2nd best offense and 25th best defense. The Nets are just 7-5 in the month of april, but to be fair, they've been dealing with injuries. The Suns who average 114 a game only mustered up 86 in their last matchup with Boston. But let's be fair here, they were on the second of a back to back off of a game vs Philly where they had to play hard for 48 minutes, and to make matters worse they were facing a Boston team who were coming in off of two days of rest and coming off of a loss. Today, that's not the case. This will be a more fair fight and it's a revenge spot for the Suns who lost to BKN who were without KD and Kyrie. Speaking of that, I can imagine it's hard for the Nets to develop any kind of Rhythm with their main guys in and out of the lineup so much, and with a chance at the one seed still, I have to believe these Suns will take advantage of that lack of rhythm and give it their all tonight and rebound off of such a poor offensive performance. 

The Play: Suns +1.5

Philadelphia 76ers vs Milwaukee Bucks

I watched the last game between these two and I will tell you this, I don't think I've ever seen a team open up a game as efficiently as the Bucks did. I know at one point, they were 13-14 from the field, and rightfully so, they are the 3rd best first qtr team in the league outscoring teams by an average of 2.7 points per contest. Of course, over the course of the game they cooled off but despite that, the game was never really close. It wasn't a fair fight because not only were the Sixers missing their second best player, but they were on a back to back off of a tightly contested game with the Suns. With that said, guess who's number two in first quarter scoring margin, the 76ers.

I believe they will come out with better intensity today after being annihilated in the previous game like a well-coached team should. The Sixers just lost the 1 seed to the Nets and listening to Embiid talk a week ago, it's important for them to maintain that spot. Speaking of Embiid, he's questionable today. I still like it if he sits. Interesting enough, the line is already shaded to him possibly missing today's game. They were 6.5 dogs on a back to back with him but now 7.5 dogs with a day of rest? 

The Bucks have been an up and down team lately. They are 4-6 SU & ATS over their last 10 games. It's not unfathomable to think we see a 1Q correction after being so efficient in the first qtr of their last game, especially against a team that is also known for good starts. Embiid or no Embiid, what goes up, must come down.

The Play: Sixers 1Q +2.5

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Charlotte Hornets

As bad as the Charlotte Hornets have been lately, I have to think they'll put forth some effort tonight. For one, the Cavs are 4-14 in their last 18 games and are coming off of a 16 point win. They shot 51% from the field and 44% from 3 scoring 121 points for the game. A lot went right in that game for the Cavs.

Compare that to their season averages of 45% from the field and 39% from 3 averaging 104 points per contest. Secondly, this is a revenge spot for the Hornets after losing to this Cavs team twice already this season, the last loss being just a week ago. Lastly, yes, the Cavaliers are still mathematically in the race for the play in, but a lot has to go right for that to happen, including a multitude of things that aren't in their control. So as an organization you have to decide which way you want your franchise to go which is still compete, or get a slightly better chance at a better draft pick. The players will always play the way they play, but I'm not sure there will be any sense of urgency tonight from the Cavs from anybody outside of the players. I'll take my chances with this struggling Hornets team that has much more to pay for which "should" be motivated here.

The Play: Hornets -1 -120

Brooklyn Nets vs Toronto Raptors

So, here we have a similar line discrepancy to the Nets vs Pelicans line yesterday.

Except, there are a few differences. For starters, the Nets are on a back to back and had to travel from New Orleans to Tampa. Secondly, the Raptors have had 2 days off. Thirdly, the Nets are coming off of a win in this scenario as opposed to a loss, and with no Harden, and no KD, I would consider the Nets a .500 team who will struggle to string together strong performances on the road. Another difference is that although the Raptors have been God-awful this season when compared to previous ones, they are one of those teams that have dealt with injuries but have the experience to play better than other teams with a similar record when healthy. Looking at injury reports,

I believe today, they will finally have a full squad ready to go, especially after being fined 25k by the league for resting players and having two days off. If anyone is to rest in this game, it'll probably be from the BKN side(Griffin). Lastly, the Raptors have quietly won 3 games in a row, and are still in contention for the play in spot. The Pacers just lost Turner indefinitely, the Wizards face the Warriors today in a Warriors revenge spot, so today's game provides an excellent opportunity for these Raptors to jump a spot or two in the next few days. All in all, this just simply isn't a fair fight for the Brooklyn Nets with so much working against them and this line is short a 3-4 points in my opinion. 

The Play: Toronto Raptors -3.5

Brooklyn Nets at New Orleans Pelicans

So, this is the kind of stuff you have to pay attention to in the #NBA 

If you bet sports, but knew nothing about the NBA, this wouldn't make any sense and you'd could easily see where the value is. But being invested in the NBA, you overthink it. You know Durant & Harden are both inactive so maybe the line is representative of that. Okay, fair, but in the grand scheme, one team has a culture of winning, while the other, a culture of losing. So when I see discrepancies like this, I asked myself which team given that both teams are coming off of a loss, has the higher probability of rebounding by playing winning basketball? Win or lose, the answer is as clear as a sunny day.

The Play: Brooklyn Nets +3

2/4/2021 Wagner at St. Francis(NY)

Today, in one of the earlier college basketball matchups, we have Wagner visiting St. Francis. This 'should' be easy but as we know, nothing is easy in sports betting. 

Wagner is 2-5 SU and is coming off of a win. Following wins this season, Wagner is 0-3 straight up and ATS this year on the road losing by an average of 17 points per contest.

St Francis is sitting at 4-4 on the season, but where they shine the most is after a loss, where they are 3-0 ATS and 2-1 SU. They are 3-1 SU & ATS as a favorite as well. 

In terms of recent history, these two teams have faced off 6 times in the past 3 season and St. Francis has taken 4 of those 6, and 3 of the last 4.

 

As of right now, the public is favoring Wagner to not only cover, but win straight up. I personally feel like this is a dead spot for Wagner.

The play: St Francis -3 -120 1u

Good Luck!

1-10-20 NCAAB Minnesota at Iowa

Today, Iowa gets another crack at the Minnesota Golden Gophers after losing to them on the road 102-95. Minnesota is 10-3 and all 3 of those losses have come on the road. In fact, they haven't won a road game this year. In those road games, they are losing by an average of 21 points per-contest. They've faced 4 top 10 ranked teams, and are 1-3 in those games losing by an average of 14 points per game. That one win was against, you guessed it, the Iowa Hawkeyes. Iowa is 10-2 and is absolutely destroying teams at home. In this last 6 game home stand, they have beaten teams by an average of 32 points per game. Iowa is one of the strongest first-half home teams in all of college basketball, winning by an average of 16 points per-game in the first-half, while Minnesota is being outscored by 8 on the road. 

I think this is an absolute smash-spot for Iowa. And not only because of those numbers, but add to that the revenge angle. I can't see Minnesota competing here, especially since they are coming into this one on a 6-game win streak.

The play: Iowa -10