San Antonio Spurs vs Utah Jazz

This will be my third game in a row betting on a game featuring the San Antonio Spurs. This team is hot ATS right now, to the point where they even covered a +5 line against the Sixers with no DeMar, no Murray, and No Poetl, and that was a home game where they really struggle to cover games. I feel like the books are a little exposed here. With the Spurs being on a back to back, a spot they are 7-5 in, they have to add another 1.5-2 points to this line. Along with that, even though this was a back to back, like I said the Spurs rested a few key members who should be rested to give this a go. Also, at the current line, it's unclear if DeMar will go. Some of the other players have been cleared, but this line might drop to 6.5 or 6 if DeMar is cleared.

 The Jazz had a really HOT period this season, but since then, they've regressed. Since April 1st, they are just a mere 10-7 straight up and just 6-11 ATS. I honestly think some of the injuries have taken their toll on the Jazz. They really lack the playmakers to carry them when shots aren't falling. With no Donovan, and no Conley, it's really up to Clarkson to carry this team offensively, but is he better than DeMar? No. Is he even better than Murray? That's up for debate. 

The Spurs have A LOT more to play for here with the Pelicans developing Rhythm and the Warriors overtaking them in the standings. By the way, the Warriors and Pelicans play today so no matter who wins, it puts pressure on the Spurs. Also, this is a revenge game for SA who lost to Utah in January by 21. On the road, the Spurs are 20-8-1 ATS and 18-12 SU. In the 2nd back to backs following losses, the Spurs are 4-1 straight up and 4-1 ATS. They are 7-1-1 in their last 9 games. Just too much point towards the Spurs not only covering, but possibly winning this game. I'll take my chances here even with the possibility of DeMar being officially ruled out. 

The Play: Spurs +7.5

Philadelphia 76ers vs San Antonio Spurs

The San Antonio Spurs rolled into Boston ON FIRE. At one point I looked late in the the 2nd qtr, they were shooting 73% from the field with a 33 point lead! Now of course, they cooled off in the second half and ended up shooting 53%, as you expect some correction there. What you don't expect is for them to lose the entire lead and the game. Very demoralizing loss. With all of that said, I had the Spurs in that game at +4.5 and won. I took that bet because of how great of a road team the Spurs are. Today they are at home and are nowhere near as good there as on the road. They face a Philly team that is top 3 in first qtr margin behind Denver & Milwaukee. The Spurs are God-awful at home in the 1Q as they are 9-23 ATS in this situation. Being that they absolutely torched Boston in the 1Q of their last game, combined with the fact that I'm not so sure they have yet to process such a demoralizing let down, I can see Philly hitting them in the mouth early here. Philly has some ground to make up after losing 4 games in a row due to several key injuries. Since getting their guys back, they are 3-0 and have beaten everybody they've played by 20+ with a scoring margin of +32.3. needless to say, I think it's a great spot for the 76ers who lost their last 1Q outright to Atlanta(26-23), and a bad spot for the Spurs who won their last first qtr by 22. I think the odds are in our favor here. 

The Play: 76ers 1Q -2

San Antonio Spurs vs Boston Celtics

The Spurs are just above .500 on the season sure, but that's because they are god awful at home(13-19). I'm not sure what it is with some of these teams, but they perform much better on the road, than at home. They are 18-11 straight up on the road, and 20-8-1 ATS. They're coming into this matchup off of a straight up loss which resulted in a push ATS depending on what number you got. 

The Celtics at home like most teams, perform their best there as they come into this matchup with a 20-12 SU home record. They are 16-16 straight up following wins and just 13-18 ATS in that situation. To make matters worse for Boston, the Spurs have completely dominated this matchup as if late. They have beaten Boston 8 out of the last 10 times they've faced off and are 7-3 ATS in those games. When I see that kind of domination, I usually attribute it to a coaching matchup rather than a player matchup. The coaches are the same here. I expect the Spurs with a day of rest following a loss, to come into this game and put up a strong enough fight to cover this line (4.5) against these Celtics who have a point differential of -1.25 in home games following games where they've won and covered.

The Play: Spurs: +4.5

New Orleans Pelicans vs Oklahoma City Thunder

The Pelicans are in a tough, yet mostly predictable spot here. Something I started tracking earlier in the season was how this Thunder team which is mostly void of great talent did after wins where they scored more than 110 points. Here are the results(13 games)

103⬇️(TT 109.5) lost by 21 vs CHI

101⬇️(TT 105) *won* by 12 vs NYK

102⬇️(TT 108.5) lost by 10 vs SAS

101⬇️(TT 105.5) lost by 18 vs DEN

102⬇️(TT 103.5) *won* by 5 vs PHX

112⬆️(TT 104.5) lost by 7 vs LAL

104⬇️(TT 110.5) lost by 11 vs POR

94⬇️(TT 102.5) lost by 14 vs MIA

96⬇️(TT 106.5) lost by 30 vs DEN

102⬇️(TT 110.5) lost by 21 vs CHI

112⬇️(TT 112.5) *won* by 9 vs MIN

97⬇️(TT 102.5) lost by 22 vs NYK

107⬆️(TT 106) lost by 9 vs MEM

103⬇️(103.5) lost by 37 vs PHX

Which comes out to an average of about 102.5 ppg. They've only scored over this total of 111.5 twice and they've only gone over the team total twice(12-2) in this situation. Prior to the game in Boston, they had been on a 14 game losing streak and had only won 1 of their last 18 games. During that span, they've only gone over 110 points 3 times, and that includes wins and losses. I'd like to think that the odds are in our favor here. 

The Play: Thunder TEAM TOTAL u111.5

Chicago Bulls vs New York Knicks

The Chicago Bulls since the Zack Lavine injury have played 7 games in total. These are their first half outcomes in those games

Tie game vs Memphis

Down 2 vs Cleveland

Down 6 vs Boston

Down 17 vs Cleveland

Up 14 vs Charlotte

Down 20 vs Miami

Down 1 vs Miami

-4.6 scoring differential. 

During this span they have won four games. In games following the 3 wins in which we can quantify, their first half outcomes are:

Down 6 vs Boston

Down 15 vs Cleveland

Down 20 vs Miami

-13.7 scoring differential.

That brings us into this game against the Knicks following a win at Miami. The Knicks are one of the better first half teams at home winning first halves there by an average of 2.7 points per game. The Knicks are 40-20-2 ATS in the first half overall and 20-12 ATS at home, making them the best first half team in the NBA. The Bulls are middle of the pack, but most of that was done with Lavine. They aren't the same team without him, obviously.

For the Knicks, there's no shame in losing the the Suns who are the superior team, but games like this really show what you're made of. How are you going to respond to that game. Will you be disciplined enough to get up for a game vs a team you're better than, following a loss vs better team? This is a real character test for the Knicks today and this line is short. Could be a trap but I see value in them here.

The Play: Knicks -2 1h

Pheonix Suns vs Brooklyn Nets

This one might be hard to for most to take. Why? For starters, KD and Tyler Johnson are set to return today. For another, the line looks very enticing for Brooklyn who has the second best offense in the league. But I like the Suns today. They have the second best record in the league for a reason. They have the 5th best defense in the league, and 7th best offense. Compared to Brooklyn who has the 2nd best offense and 25th best defense. The Nets are just 7-5 in the month of april, but to be fair, they've been dealing with injuries. The Suns who average 114 a game only mustered up 86 in their last matchup with Boston. But let's be fair here, they were on the second of a back to back off of a game vs Philly where they had to play hard for 48 minutes, and to make matters worse they were facing a Boston team who were coming in off of two days of rest and coming off of a loss. Today, that's not the case. This will be a more fair fight and it's a revenge spot for the Suns who lost to BKN who were without KD and Kyrie. Speaking of that, I can imagine it's hard for the Nets to develop any kind of Rhythm with their main guys in and out of the lineup so much, and with a chance at the one seed still, I have to believe these Suns will take advantage of that lack of rhythm and give it their all tonight and rebound off of such a poor offensive performance. 

The Play: Suns +1.5

Philadelphia 76ers vs Milwaukee Bucks

I watched the last game between these two and I will tell you this, I don't think I've ever seen a team open up a game as efficiently as the Bucks did. I know at one point, they were 13-14 from the field, and rightfully so, they are the 3rd best first qtr team in the league outscoring teams by an average of 2.7 points per contest. Of course, over the course of the game they cooled off but despite that, the game was never really close. It wasn't a fair fight because not only were the Sixers missing their second best player, but they were on a back to back off of a tightly contested game with the Suns. With that said, guess who's number two in first quarter scoring margin, the 76ers.

I believe they will come out with better intensity today after being annihilated in the previous game like a well-coached team should. The Sixers just lost the 1 seed to the Nets and listening to Embiid talk a week ago, it's important for them to maintain that spot. Speaking of Embiid, he's questionable today. I still like it if he sits. Interesting enough, the line is already shaded to him possibly missing today's game. They were 6.5 dogs on a back to back with him but now 7.5 dogs with a day of rest? 

The Bucks have been an up and down team lately. They are 4-6 SU & ATS over their last 10 games. It's not unfathomable to think we see a 1Q correction after being so efficient in the first qtr of their last game, especially against a team that is also known for good starts. Embiid or no Embiid, what goes up, must come down.

The Play: Sixers 1Q +2.5